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Fed Rate Path Pushes Lower In Holiday-Thinned Trade

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have declined through today’s session, with very little by way of data (miss for Richmond Fed mfg to complete the regional Fed mfg surveys for December).
  • It’s more than reversed increases seen in yesterday’s holiday-thinned trade and leaves some unusual level differences compared with levels from before Friday’s monthly PCE report.
  • Of note, the March implied rate is some 2.5bps lower than pre-PCE levels for a cumulative 26bp of cuts, whilst July is unchanged with 102bp cumulative cuts - see table for more.
  • The broad takeaway though is that there are five consecutive 25bp cuts priced from March to September.

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