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Fed Rate Path Sees Q1 Core PCE Boost

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold most of the push higher after stronger core PCE inflation, decent consumption growth considering the revised weakness in retail sales and resilient initial claims.
  • 22bp hike for Wed’s FOMC (+2bp on the day) and a cumulative 28bp hike for Jun (+4bp).
  • There are now 14bp of cuts from current levels to 4.69% in Nov (+7bp) vs 19bps at the start of the US session, before 37bps to 4.46% in Dec (+6.5bp on the day) vs 42bp of cuts earlier.
  • Nevertheless, the year-end 4.46% hasn't quite yet clawed back a slide after First Republic's results on Monday and remains some 20bps off last week's recent highs.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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