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Fed Rates Drift Lower Ahead of Retail Sales, Heavy Fedspeak

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted lower overnight in keeping with ECB pricing little changed to incrementally lower, but remain off yesterday’s post Empire lows.
  • Cumulative moves from current 5.08% effective: +2.5bp Jun (-0.5bp), -6bp Jul (-1.5bp), -21bp Sep (-1.5bp), -45bp Nov (-2bp), -69bp Dec (-2bp) and -94bp Jan (-2.5bp).
  • Another heavy schedule of Fedspeak: Mester (’24), VC Barr House testimony (voter), NY Fed’s Williams (voter) and Logan (’23) as well as repeat Goolsbee (’23) and Bostic (’24) after yesterday.
  • Williams last week broadly stuck to FOMC guidance for someone typically at the more dovish end. Logan last spoke Apr 20 (watching for further, sustained improvement in inflation), as did Mester (favors raising above 5% but urges prudence).


Source: Bloomberg

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