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Fed Speak Flattens Yld Curves Ahead Jackson Hole Eco-Summit

US TSYS
Tsy futures near late session highs after the bell, focus turns to KC Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy, agenda release tonight at 2000ET; Chairman Powell speaks Fri at 1000ET (0800 local), text is expected but no Q&A.
  • Modest reaction to early data: Tsys bounced after setting session lows on lower than expected weekly claims at 243k vs. 252k est, first revision of Q2 GDP is -0.6% vs. -0.7% est. Yield curves briefly extended session highs (2s10s tapped -25.669) before mixed Fed speak:
  • Trading desks citing Philly Fed Harker comment on a 50bp hike is "still a substantial move" for latest bounce after conceding there is no decision yet on the size of a hike at the Sep FOMC. That said, Harker told MNI the Fed should hike above 3.4% by Dec to combat soaring inflation, adding that rates could continue rising next year or hold at that level for some time. Atlanta Fed Bostic said strong data could tip Fed toward 75bp, while KC Fed George: rates could exceed 4%.
  • Yield curves flatter/near lows after Tsys extend highs on strong $37B 7Y note auction (91282CFJ5) stopped through: 3.130% high yield vs. 3.159% WI; 2.65x bid-to-cover vs. 2.60x last month
  • Heavy session volumes (TYZ>2.6M) tied to surge in Sep/Dec rolling ahead next Wed's First Notice date (Dec takes lead).
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is down 2bps at 3.3701%, 5-Yr is down 7.9bps at 3.1539%, 10-Yr is down 8.2bps at 3.0221%, and 30-Yr is down 8.1bps at 3.2314%.
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