November 14, 2022 17:04 GMT
Fed Terminal Cools On Brainard
STIR FUTURES
- Fed-dated OIS trimmed very slightly for Dec on Brainard comments at 53bp ("probably appropriate soon to move to a slower pace"), still up 1bp from post-CPI close on Thursday.
- Terminal rate expectations are more mixed but on balance are currently 1bp lower at 4.93% (despite "but have additional work to do both on raising rates and showing sustaining restraint to bring inflation down over time"), for still up 4bp from Thu close, helped by a more hawkish Waller over the weekend.
- Coming after the initial reaction, Brainard doesn't really push back against the idea of rate cuts next year, instead focusing her answer on two-sided risks as get into restrictive territory.
FOMC-dated OIS implied hike in Dec (white) and terminal rate in Jun (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
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