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Fed Terminal Drifting Modestly Lower

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes consolidate the 27.5bp for Feb 1 seen after CPI and drift a little lower for subsequent meetings.
  • Cumulative 46.5bp for March (-0.5bp), 57bp to terminal 4.90% Jun (-1.5bp) and now 52.5bps of cuts to 4.37% Dec (-2.5bp). The terminal edges closer to the low 4.8s before the Dec FOMC.
  • Two 2023 voters today: Kashkari gives welcoming remarks at 1000ET (last spoke Jan 4: too soon to definitely declare inflation has peaked, favors 5.4% then pausing) before Harker again after yesterday lent towards 25bp hike for “a few more times this year”.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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