Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- The budget deficit of C$40bn for the almost realized FY 23/24 was in line with the updated estimate from the Fall Economic Statement in Nov.
- After that, deficits drift higher than previously estimated but the deterioration is limited as a % GDP. The C$39.8bn projected for FY 24/25 was smaller than some estimates seen beforehand, and is equivalent to 1.3% GDP.
- It’s seen fading to 0.6% GDP by FY 28/29 but once again doesn’t return to balance.
- Planned spending has come in notably higher than expected (rising 6.7% this year, far faster than the economy’s potential growth) but so too have estimated revenues. There’s a risk here nominal GDP and tax receipt assumptions undershoot, prompting larger than projected deficits.
- Federal government debt is seen slowly trending lower from 42% GDP to 39% GDP in FY 28/29.
- These figures see the government meet its recently defined fiscal anchors: deficits at or below $40.1bn in FY24, declining as % GDP in FY25 and beyond (including sub-1% from FY27) and a debt ratio below 42.7% in FY25 and declining thereafter.
- With the government starting to gear up for an election footing, favourable economic and fiscal developments since the November update have been squandered with a preference for higher program spending.
- That said, sub 1.5% GDP deficits are still leagues healthier than the 6-7% GDP deficits the IMF forecasts for the US over its projection horizon.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok