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FI higher as markets focus on growth conerns following FOMC Minutes

BONDS
  • Markets have generally been drifting mildly higher this morning, but saw bigger moves through the Asian session as markets digested yesterday's FOMC Minutes. A faster pace of balance sheet wind down has led to some concerns over the growth outlook, with the Fed seemingly contemplating a 50bp hike in March (but most members were deterred by the Ukraine war).
  • After being closed overnight, gilts are leading the moves today.
  • Looking ahead we will receive the ECB Accounts of their monpol meeting, and given the surprisingly more hawkish tilt at the March meeting, these will be closely watched too. Any hints on how soon next steps could come and whether there is any scope to bring forward any expected policy moves are likely to be analysed.
  • We will also hear from Fed's Bullard, Bostic and Evans as well as BOE's Pill (although the latter is just giving opening remarks at a conference for 15 minutes - so may not address much if anything on monpol).
  • TY1 futures are up 0-12 today at 121-02 with 10y UST yields down -2.9bp at 2.571% and 2y yields down -3.8bp at 2.435%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.53 today at 157.77 with 10y Bund yields down -2.8bp at 0.617% and Schatz yields down -3.7bp at -0.84%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.63 today at 120.82 with 10y yields down -3.6bp at 1.666% and 2y yields down -4.6bp at 1.406%.
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