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Final Inflation Data Flags Sticky Services Despite Headline Fall

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN JUN FINAL HICP +0.6% M/M; +1.6% Y/Y (=FLASH); MAY +2.9% Y/Y

The final June data for Spanish inflation confirmed flash estimates.

  • HICP decelerated by 1.3 percentage points to +1.6% y/y, falling below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since March 2021. On the month, harmonised prices rose +0.6%.
  • The key downwards drivers were lower fuel and electricity prices, which saw transport HICP fall to -7.8% y/y (vs -4.0% y/y in May) and housing decline to -12.7% y/y (vs -10.4% in May).
  • To a lesser extent, food inflation stepped down (+10.3% y/y vs +12.0% in May).
  • Yet leisure and culture inflation accelerated to +6.9% y/y (vs +5.9% in May), in part due to stronger tourist packages costs.
  • Spanish services CPI ticked up 0.1pp to +4.3% y/y in June, whilst core CPI only saw a minor relief, easing by 0.2 percentage points to +5.9% y/y (= flash).
  • Hence despite the healthy deceleration in headline inflation, stubbornly high services inflation means core CPI remained elevated, underscoring sticky-services inflation concerns of the ECB.

HICP Spain vs Eurozone:

Source: INE

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