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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen some reasonable fluctuations today, including a quick reversal after dipping on particularly soft U.Mich inflation expectations, but are ultimately back near levels seen before Wednesday’s CPI. That is except for near-term meetings which haven’t shrugged off the weaker core PCE implications of the CPI and PPI reports.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1bp for Wed (unch), +8bp for Nov (-1bp on the day) and +11bp (-0.5bp) for Dec to a terminal 5.44%. The latter is down 1bp on the day and 2bps on pre-CPI levels.
- Cuts from terminal: 29bp to Jun’24 and 92bp to Dec’24 with the latter near recent lows, and leaving an implied effective rate of 4.52% just 6bps lower the 2024 median dot from the June SEP ahead of next week’s updated dot plot.
- Note the significant change in the path compared to pre-JOLTS levels in the table below, a report that helped kickstart a series of data prints consistent with a soft landing theme. The Nov implied rate (the then terminal) is currently 10bps lower yet the Dec’24 is 7.5bps higher since then.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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