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FinMin Expect 'Slight' Technical Recession in H2

CZECHIA
  • On Friday, Finance Ministry published the new economic forecasts for 2022 and 2023:
    • *CZECH FINANCE MINISTRY SEES 2022 INFLATION 16.2%, 2023 AT 8.8%
    • *CZECH FINANCE MINISTRY SEES 2022 GDP GROWTH 2.2%, 2023 AT 1.1% (bbg)
  • FinMin expects a 'slight' technical recession in H2 and sticks with its plan to cut public finance deficit below the 3% (of GDP) level by the end of its term in 2025.
  • We have seen that leading economic indicators have been pricing in a more pronounced recession in the coming 6 to 9 months.
  • For instance, consumer confidence has been constantly testing new lows in the current environment, falling to -33 in July, its lowest level since 1999 (see chart).
  • Next economic data to watch will be consumer confidence, coming out on August 24.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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