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Firmer After Volatile Post-CPI Trade

US TSYS

TYZ3 deals at 109-31+, -0-01, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 1-5bps richer across the major benchmarks, the curve bull steepened.
  • Tsys were volatile in the aftermath of the US CPI trade as core CPI M/M was a touch firmer than estimates. Losses were reversed and gains marginally extended as the low nature of the unrounded beat was digested.
  • Core CPI rose from 0.16% to 0.28% M/M, a large part of the acceleration was driven by airfares contribution of 0.09%.
  • FOMC dated OIS remain stable, a terminal rate of 5.45% is seen in December with ~50bps of cuts by July 2024.
  • The latest 30-Year Auction tailed, an average bid/cover ratio was observed and indirect take-up was lower than average.
  • In Asia today the latest Australian Labour Market Report provides the highlight. Further out we have Initial Jobless Claims, Retail Sales and PPI.
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