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Firmer Oil Prices Boosting Peso, USDCOP Extends Below 200-Day MA

COLOMBIA
  • The firm bounce in energy prices certainly assisting the move lower in USDCOP on Tuesday. The peso appears to have been benefitting from the most recent breach of the 200-day moving average last week through 4600.
  • The pair has narrowed the gap with more significant support at 4500, the year’s lows and a decent pivot point dating back to July last year.
  • The more favourable backdrop for EM FX over the past few weeks has been assisting the move but with Petro’s hampered reform pipeline and BanRep potentially coming to the end of the hiking cycle, obvious headwinds linger that could halt the momentum of the rally.
  • As noted, March consumer confidence data is due Wednesday, but the focus will be on industrial production & retail sales data, scheduled this Friday. Additionally, the central bank will also be releasing the results of the latest survey of economists.

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