AUSTRALIA DATA: First Rise In Vacancies In Over Two Years

November quarter job vacancies rose 4.2% q/q, the first quarterly increase since Q2 2022, leaving the annual rate down 10.3% y/y after -17.1% y/y. The labour market has remained strong despite weak growth with almost 400k new jobs in the year to November. The vacancy data is suggesting that there will little easing in the December data released on January 16. The RBA has noted that “vacancies are still relatively high”. 

• In December, the RBA said “that labour market conditions remain tight, while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised”. The latest ABS vacancy data is consistent with this.
• The S&P Global December services PMI report noted that there was marginal “job shedding” in December. The shift was driven by less capacity pressures but also difficulties finding skilled labour to replace voluntary leavers. These shortages may have contributed to the pickup in vacancies.
• With the number of unemployed falling 3.0% q/q in Q4, the vacancy-to-employment ratio rose to 4pp to 56.9%, but still below Q2’s 57.9%. The ratio remains elevated and around 20pp above the historical average, signalling that labour market conditions remain robust, as also demonstrated by low unemployment & underemployment rates.
• Vacancies rose in 14 out of 18 industries with the strongest in "customer-facing" sectors. The private sector rose 4.7% q/q and public +0.4% q/q. 

Australia vacancies-to-unemployed %