First round of presidential election to be...>

POLAND: First round of presidential election to be held on June 28, following

delay from original date of May 10 due to COVID-19 pandemic.

- Opinion polling shows incumbent Andrzej Duda winning a plurality in the first

round, but not an overall majority that would avoid the need for a second-round

run off.

- Polling for second round scenarios shows a very close contest between Duda, an

independent supported by the governing conservative Law and Justice Party, and

all of his likely challengers. Hypothetical second-round polling below:

- Scenario 1: Duda 51.2%. Trzaskowski (centre-right Civic Platform) 48.8%

(United Survey, May 29); Duda 50.2%, Trzaskowski 49.8% (PGB Opinium, MAy 26-29).

- Scenario 2: Duda 50.2%, Holownia (independent) 49.8% (United Survey); Duda

50.5%, Holownia 49.5% (PGB Opinium)

- Scenario 3: Duda 50%, Kosiniak-Kamysz (agrarian Polish People's Party) 50%

(United Survey); Duda 50.6%, Kosiniak-Kamysz 49.4% (PGB Opinium) 

- Polish president has ability to veto legislation, so gov't will be keen to

ensure their ally Duda remains in place.