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Fiscal Framework Approved, Petrobras Upgraded at BTG

BRAZIL
  • The lower house of congress voted to approve new fiscal rules on Tuesday, wrapping up legislation designed to shore up public finances and alleviate market concerns about the Lula administration’s spending plans. Lawmakers voted 379-64 in favor of the fiscal plan, which will be sent to Lula for his signature.
    • It is worth noting the lower house slightly toughened the version approved by the Senate in June, removing a provision that would have allowed the government to spend an additional 40 billion reais ($8.1 billion). Congressional leaders, however, also reached a deal to allow the government to restore that spending through the annual budget process and provisional sell-side reviews see little impact on their current forecasts.
  • BTG sees Petrobras' decision to increase fuel prices as impetus to remove their long-held cautious stance, prompting today's upgrade. The improved by-laws and the protection of stated-owned enterprise law was also highlighted.
  • The approval of the fiscal framework, Petrobras's upgrade and another positive day for iron ore could further support Brazilian stocks and extend the Ibovespa recovery yesterday. Markets will remain focused on mid-month inflation data on Friday, however, BCB’s Campos Neto does meet today with Canada Pension Plan and India’s ambassador.
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