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Fiscal Framework In Focus

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL opened very moderately higher to start the week but has since fallen back to unchanged despite the dampened sentiment amid a decline in commodity prices after China set a lower-than-expected growth target.
  • Market participants will be keenly watching for developments relating to Brazil’s new fiscal rule. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the framework proposal would be ready last Friday, however, as of yet no announcement has been made.
  • Estado reported that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may approve it in a meeting with Haddad at 8.30am ET. Monday and additionally, Valor reported that the new fiscal rule will use GDP per capita as a reference for government’s expense growth.
  • Analysts note that attention remains on President Lula’s announcement of the replacement of Bruno Serra on BCB’s board. Worth noting that local assets are likely pricing in a PT-linked appointee.
  • On the data front, Friday’s release of February IPCA inflation will be the highlight. Worth noting in today’s central bank focus survey, economists kept their expectations for both year-end 2023 and 2024 inflation steady at 5.9 and 4.02% respectively.

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