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Fiscal Outlook Clouded by Wage Costs: Fitch Ratings

SOUTH AFRICA
  • The South African government’s projection that government debt/GDP will rise to 77.7% in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26) is broadly in line with Fitch Ratings’ forecasts. However, Fitch believe the risk that the government fails to meet its ambitious fiscal targets is significant, with wage cost control set to be particularly challenging.
  • They say the revenue shortfall is broadly in line with their projections, with revenue seen reaching 27.3% of GDP in FY24, against Fitch's September forecast of 27.1%. They say they still view the government’s target of achieving a primary budget surplus this year as realistic.
  • Fitch's medium-term forecasts match MTBPS projections, with revenue plateauing at around 27% of GDP, from 28.2% in FY23, though the risk it falls short of this target remains significant given the weak economic environment, they say.
  • Full note here.
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