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Fiscal Pledges Under Scrutiny, Macroeconomic Data On Tap

POLAND
  • Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Polsat News that he sees a "chance for an interest-rate cut between September and December" last night, despite hawkish NBP repricing seen in reaction to the election campaign pledges unveiled by the ruling party over the weekend. Morawiecki said that he will convene a Cabinet meeting this week to discuss fiscal measures outlined by the governing Law and Justice party and work on a schedule of implementing "all the proposals." He estimated the combined cost of all the new measures at around PLN26bn (analysts had earlier said it will be around ~1% of GDP), with the largest price tag attached to boosting the flagship "Family 500 plus" child benefit scheme from next year.
  • There is speculation that there could be more fiscal announcements from Poland's ruling party in the pipeline, with a parliamentary election coming up in October or November. Super Express reported this morning that the ruling party considers introducing automatic annual increases of pay-outs from the "Family 500 plus" programme. The tabloid cited sources noting that the party brought forward the announcement of raising monthly pay-outs to PLN800 from PLN500 per child in an attempt to detract attention away from an embarrassing incident involving a stray Russian missile which fell near the city of Bydgoszcz.
  • The focus turns to local data, with flash Q1 GDP figures coming up at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the economy to have contracted 0.9% Y/Y in the first three months of the year. Later in the day, core CPI for April will be published at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. The median estimate is +12.2% Y/Y, several local sell-side desks also cited that number when final headline CPI came out yesterday.
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