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Fiscal Risks Continue To Mount Ahead Of Potential Congress Votes This Week

BRAZIL
  • Local media report that the government is trying to push back on plans in Congress to hold votes this week that could cost the government as much as BRL 96.3bn in the period through 2026. BRL 42bn of this could come from a constitutional amendment that the Senate will begin discussing that would give a 5% salary increase to judicial officials across the country.
  • Last week, Finance Minister Haddad returned early from the IMF spring meetings to hold talks with key lawmakers and the government is also reported to be asking the regional governors to act against the bill, according to O Globo. Meanwhile, President Lula is expected to talk with Senate leader Pacheco and lower house speaker Lira this week.
  • Both chambers of congress are scheduled to hold votes that may override Lula’s vetoes of items in the budget. This may include a vote on Wednesday to overturn BRL 5.6bn in budget amendments. Local assets have not reacted to these risks today, with USDBRL down 0.5% and DI swaps rates tracking 5bp or so lower at the front end of the curve.
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