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Fitch Ratings Raises Oil and Gas Price Assumptions

ENERGY
  • They have raised Brent by 5$/bbl in 2022 to 2024 to 105$/bbl in 2022 and 85$/bbl in 2023. Higher oil assumptions are driven by the disruption to oil supply from EU’s ban on Russian seaborn imports and from growing demand. They expect prices to eventually moderate with use of spare capacity and redirected trade flows. Long term price assumptions are unchanged.
  • TTF assumptions are raised for 2022-2025 due to EU reducing dependency on Russian gas supplies and increasing dependence on LNG. They see an accelerated energy transition so long-term assumptions remain unchanged.
  • US Natgas assumptions are higher mainly due to LNG export demand and modest production growth

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