Fitch Says Turks Have Been Slow to Switch to FX-Linked Deposits

LOCAL NEWS

• Fitch says switching to Turkish lira time deposits could increase with the introduction of tax incentives for corporates.
  • However, it sees limited switch given high inflation and the potential reluctance of customers to exit FX deposits, particularly given the minimum tenors on switching.
  • If the scheme helps to limit further lira depreciation, it could reduce risks to banks’ credit profiles by mitigating near-term risks to the stability of bank funding, reducing local demand for foreign currency and improving investor sentiment.
  • Warns that the scheme does not address causes of sharp deterioration in domestic confidence that has weakened lira and believes macroeconomic volatility could persist well beyond near term
• US says is has evidence that Russia planned to stage a false flag attack on Ukraine to justify an invasion potentially using Turkish-made Bayaraktar drones as part of the fake operation.
  • Yesterday Turkey and Ukraine agreed to boost production of the drones in Ukraine, which Putin has warned Turkey against in the past and could harm Turkey-Russia relations somewhat as Erdogan continues to play both sides of the fence
• CHP Chair Kilicdaroglu says the Kavala case with the ECHR is a “serious blow to Turkey’s reputation and its struggle for democracy.” This comes after Erdogan said it would ignore the CoE’s ruling to release Kavala and the ECHR presses ahead with infringement proceedings to potentially strip Turkey of its veto powers
• Producers are facing major difficulties as they struggle to fully reflect the rise in PPIs (93.53% y/y in Jan) to the final product prices.
  • Business representatives, who say their biggest problem is their inability to create costs and low profitability, are calling for a policy that will balance producer and consumer prices

Data:

• 1130GMT: Jan Effective Exchange Rate, 47.82 prior