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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SCOTLAND
Political bettors continue to have former Scottish National Party (SNP) leader in Westminster Angus Robertson as the favourite to succeed First Minister Nicola Sturgeon following the announcement of her resignation on 15 February. Data from Smarkets shows Robertson with a 50.0% implied probability of becoming the next first minister.
- Robertson, currently serving as Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture in the Scottish gov't, from 2007-2017 sat as the SNP leader in the House of Commons, one of the most prominent media roles for SNP politicians.
- Bettors have Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy Kate Forbes in second place, with an implied probability of taking over from Sturgeon of 30.3%. In third place is Depute SNP Leader Keith Brown, with an implied probability of 12.8%.
- Nominations close at 1200GMT on 24 Feb, with the party membership vote then taking place between 13-27 March.
- Reports in UK press suggest that Sturgeon's resignation could delay the SNP's efforts for independence by five years. There is no guarantee the new leader will stick to the Sturgeon's view that a UK general election or a Scottish parl't election is a 'de-facto referendum'.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Succeeding Nicola Sturgeon as Scottish First Minister, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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