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Focus On Friday's October Employment Data

US TSYS

Tsy futures weaker after the bell but near late session highs, yield curves near inverted lows (2s10s currently -5.411 at -57.745). Generally quiet second half as markets await Friday's October employment data.

  • Tsys opened weaker, adding to Wed's post-FOMC action after Chairman Powell's hawkish rebuttal to the expected 75bp rate hike while short end back to gradually pricing in an unprecedented fifth 75bp hike in December.
  • Little react to expected BOE 75bp hike earlier while Tsys extended lows after small pick-up in continuing claims to 1.485M (1.450M est), weekly claims little softer at 218k vs. 220k est. Unit Labor Costs lower than exp: 3.5% vs. 4.0% est.
  • Tsys bounced off midmorning lows (30YY tapped 4.2298%) after weaker than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing at 54.4 vs expected 55.3 (56.7 prior), ending for consecutive months of stronger data.
  • Fed out of media blackout Friday: Boston Fed Pres Collins on economy/policy outlook at a Brookings conf (text and Q&A expected) at 1000ET, while CNBC expected to interview Richmond Fed Pres Barkin at same time.
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 7.5bps at 4.695%, 5-Yr is up 4.1bps at 4.35%, 10-Yr is up 2.1bps at 4.1217%, and 30-Yr is up 1.1bps at 4.1512%.

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