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Focus On Q4 GDP This Week

PERU
  • The data calendar is light this week, with just Q4 GDP figures due on Friday. Economic activity in December was weaker than expected, according to data released last week, with the economy contracting by -0.7% y/y at the end of last year, vs. +0.3% prior and +0.4% expected. Fishing, manufacturing and construction all dragged activity lower, while mining output remained robust (+3.6% y/y).
  • On the back of this, Q4 GDP is set to have fallen by -0.4% y/y, vs. -1.0% in Q3, taking full-year growth to -0.6%. In q/q terms, however, GDP may have risen slightly in Q4. Looking ahead, Itau expect GDP growth to rebound to +2.5% this year, as the affect of social conflicts and unfavourable weather conditions fades, although Q1 activity may still be curbed by the impact of El Niño.
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