Focus On Scale Of Labour Rebellion As Vote On Winter Fuel Payment Looms

MPs are set to vote on the removal of universal winter fuel payments for pensioners at around 1400BST (0900ET, 1500CET), with the focus on the scale of the rebellion by backbench Labour members. Blaming the financial situation inherited from the previous Conservative gov't, PM Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves have sought to portray a political narrative that unpopular decisions are not optional but necessary in restoring the public finances.

• Politico reports that according to one Labour opponent of the cut, "just “two or three” Labour MPs will actually vote with the opposition (and risk suspension) and that there will probably be fewer abstentions than the 50 touted over the weekend. Another Labour rebel said they would be happy if 30 MPs abstained."
• In the last notably controversial vote on the maintenance of the two-child benefit cap, the seven left-wing Labour MPs that voted in favour of the SNP motion had thewhip withdrawn (making them independent rather than Labour MPs for six months). The response of the gov't to any rebels voting against will be watched closely.
• While Starmer's centre-left Labour party holds a massive majority in the Commons, having large numbers of rebelling backbenchers so early into a parliamentary term could be viewed as foreshadowing further rebellions down the line.
• Starmer is set to deliver a speech to the Trade Union Congress annual conference at around the top of the hour, the first Labour PM to do so since Gordon Brown in 2009. Livestream here.