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Early Week Focus On Supply

US TSYS

Tsy futures have now fully reversed Friday's gains, though are still within ranges as Thanksgiving week gets underway. 2Y and 5Y supply are the session's highlights.

  • Despite short-end/belly supply, the curve is bear steepening: 2-Yr yield is up 2.7bps at 0.5334%, 5-Yr is up 3bps at 1.251%, 10-Yr is up 3.8bps at 1.584%, and 30-Yr is up 3.8bps at 1.9475%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) down 13.5/32 at 130-14.5 (L: 130-14 / H: 130-24), on solid volumes (~410k). Note Friday's low was 130-13+.
  • The supply schedule is busy, with a truncated holiday week ahead: 1130ET sees $51B of 26-week bills and $58B 2Y Note auction; at 1300ET is $57B 13-week bills and $59B 5Y Note auction. (And Tuesday we get $59B 7Y and $24B 2Y FRN).
  • Data includes Oct Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index (0830ET) and Oct existing home sales (1000ET).
  • Attention on the White House this week: Pres Biden due to speak Tuesday on the economy/inflation, with Fed Chair nomination expected before Thanksgiving.
  • NY Fed buys ~$1.425B of 10-22.5Y Tsys.
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