Focus On Thursday’s Labour Data

This week the focus will be on Thursday’s labour market data for January which is expected to partially unwind December’s drop. Survey data is also released this week.

• On Tuesday the RBA’s Kohler speaks at 0855 AEDT but after Governor Bullock appeared twice last week, she is unlikely to say anything new.
• Westpac’s measure of consumer confidence for February prints on Tuesday and will be watched for any reaction to the on hold RBA decision last week. January’s NAB business survey is also released and while confidence has been volatile, it will be monitored for a further deterioration in conditions and moves in the price/cost components.
• Employment is on Thursday and is expected to rise 30k in January after falling 65.1k with the labour force shrinking in December. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up 0.1pp to 4% with the participation rate also rising 0.1pp to 66.9% after falling 0.5pp in December.
• February Melbourne Institute inflation expectations also print on Thursday. They were steady at 4.5% in January.
• Thursday also sees CBA’s household spending insights for January. The series has a strong correlation with the ABS’ retail sales.