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Focus Turns To Election Day, SARB Rate Decision This Week

SOUTH AFRICA
  • South African voters will head to the polling stations tomorrow to elect members of the National Assembly and state legislatures. The National Assembly will then pick the next President, who will take the helm of the country for a five-year term. As flagged in our election preview from last week, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) faces the risk of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of the Apartheid in 1994. The latest update to the Social Research Foundation Daily Tracking Poll estimated the support for the ANC at 42.4%, assuming a turnout of 66%. With the loss of a parliamentary majority by the ANC now widely seen as the baseline scenario, the focus is on how far below the 50% threshold the party lands. The Mail and Guardian wrote that "the further the ANC slips below 50%, the more permutations are on the table in the scramble to form a multi-party government." The Electoral Commission (IEC) will hold a media briefing on the readiness for the main voting day at 17:00BST/18:00SAST.
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday. The combination of sticky inflation and hawkish rhetoric underpins expectations of another stand-pat outcome.
  • The National Treasury holds its weekly bond auction, with ZAR1.25bn each of 8.25% 2032 bonds, 8.875% of 2035 bonds and 8.75% 2044 bonds on offer.
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