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EGBS: Following the weekend elections in Italy, the yen strengthened (very
slightly), Euro dropped and core global bond yields fell. Treasuries took part
in the process and on Friday the 10Y yield was trading at 2.86% but at one stage
in early European trading, it had fallen to 2.81%.
- However, despite the indisputably market-unfriendly election result for Italy,
the political threat was quickly brushed aside. Italian debt came back rapidly,
allowing core bond yields to rise and the UST 10Y is back to 2.842%. This
represents a 2.2bp decline from the NY close and the curve move has been fairly
- The risk-off trade is no longer obvious as 2-5Y swap spreads have declined
relative to Friday. The 3Y leads with a 0.5bp drop to 21.5bp.
- The S&P mini index future points to a 0.17% decline at the open of US stock
- It is payroll week but today's data has only the ISM service sector data for