FOMC Minutes Preview (1/2): Setting The Table For September

The July FOMC meeting minutes (released today 1400ET) will be scrutinized closely for signs that key policy decisions will be made as soon as the September meeting. Most on sell-side are looking for the FOMC to adopt outcome-based (likely inflation-based) forward guidance in Sep along with the unveiling of the results of the policy framework review, so any discussion on these topics in the Minutes will be keenly eyed.

Plenty of associated issues that may be mentioned, including: assessment of members' support for average inflation targeting, fiscal policy assumptions/economic outlook, and further clarity on asset purchase strategy (esp re duration). These Minutes will also set the stage for Jackson Hole next week. Some sell-side views:

• Morgan Stanley: "The minutes should shed light on possible enhancements to the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy... also interested in discussion about possible changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) /dot-plot. In particular, we are interested to hear more about how the Committee might provide greater clarity on the likely path for asset purchases."
• Citi: "to reveal discussion on the options for forward guidance....may also shed light on the path forward for asset purchases."
• Wrightson ICAP will "be watching closely for hints about a change in the maturity composition of the Desk's purchases both this afternoon and in next week's Jackson Hole presentations"
• SocGen (Kit Juckes): "if [the] Minutes suggest the Fed will keep rates lower regardless of inflation upticks, the dollar's going to remain under pressure."