Free Trial

FOMC Sep and Nov Hike Probabilities Near Unchanged On FOMC Decision

STIR
  • The initial STIR reaction to the FOMC announcement has been very small, at least before the presser.
  • FOMC-dated OIS implied rates see September expectations drift just 0.5bps lower to a 4bp hike and the Nov terminal remains with a cumulative 11bp (i.e. almost 50/50 odds of the second hike that the median FOMC participant pencilled in for June) -- assuming a 5.33% effective rate.
  • There’s no discernible change in cut pricing either, with 55bp from terminal to Jun’24.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.