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Forint Outperforms Regional Peers Though EURHUF Ranges Narrow

HUF
EURHUF has started Tuesday’s session on the back foot, down 0.25% at typing. The forint is once again outperforming its CE3 peers, as lower core yields (both US10y and GE 10y -3.1bps), potentially provide some support (PLNHUF: -0.19%; CZKHUF: -0.47%). On the other hand, a softer single currency and lower major benchmark equity indices may limit additional HUF gains amid limited domestic drivers.
  • Price action so far remains within yesterday’s ranges with a familiar technical picture still in play: immediate support is marked at 378.24, the Aug 30 low. While this level has been recently pierced, a more sustained break would signal scope for a move lower toward 376.78, the Jul 25 low, as well as 373.98, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 12 - Aug 3 bull leg.
  • CPI data is the highlight on the local calendar on Friday (Est: +10.4% y/y; Prior +12.2%). The data will be closely watched for its implications on the pace of upcoming monetary policy easing given concern of market participants that the generous HUF carry will be further eroded through year-end. The next NBH decision is on Nov 21.

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