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Forint Pressured Following FT Report, PLNHUF at Highest Since Dec’2022

HUF
  • The forint is comfortably the poorest performing currency in the EMEA region following a report by the FT on Sunday citing a leaked document prepared by EU officials which urged members to permanently shut off all funding to Budapest if Orban does not withdraw his veto on a proposed EU aid package for Ukraine. See more here.
  • Forint headwinds have seen EURHUF extend its recent gains at the start of the week, with the cross up 0.4% on the day and trading just above 389.00. The Oct 9 high of 389.20 is the immediate resistance level to watch ahead of the early October highs.
  • Meanwhile, PLNHUF is up 0.5% at typing, above the late December high of 89.06 and at its highest level since December 2021. That cross has now recorded an impressive 3.3% bounce off of the mid-January lows.
  • Looking ahead, tomorrow's NBH rate decision the highlight of the week where sell-side consensus is for the pace of monetary easing to increase with a 100bp rate cut. Our full preview of that decision will be released later today.
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