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Four Analysts All Noting GDP Strength But Still Seeing BoC On Hold Next Week [1/2]

CANADA
  • BMO: Each of the main figures here are better than expected—Q1, March and April GDP—and the details were solid for Q1 as well. The run of sturdy data undoubtedly raises the odds that the BoC needs to go back to the well of rate hikes, and even puts some chance on a move as early as next week's policy decision. However, given the uncertain backdrop and the possibility that inflation took a big step down in May, the BoC could opt to remain patient for a bit longer and signal that it's open to hiking in July if the strength persists.
  • CIBC: Growth in Q1 was stronger and broader-based than we had anticipated, while Q2 appears to have started on a slightly firmer footing. Even though growth since January has still been only modest, the resilience of GDP raises the possibility of a further interest rate hike from the BoC. However, we still expect that they will want to wait and see more data, while also revising their forecasts in the July MPR, rather than pull the trigger on a further 25bp increase as early as next week.
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