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Fourth Republican Presidential Debate Underway Shortly


The fourth Republican Presidential debate is set to get underway shortly in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL), former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will appear on stage. As with previous debates, former President Donald Trump will skip the event, this time he counterprogrammed with a town hall hosted by conservative talk show host Sean Hannity yesterday. A summary of Trump’s Hannity comments can be found here. (The Hill)

  • The Wall Street Journal notes: "The debate will be broadcast on NewsNation’s cablenetwork, Rumble [and] in the Eastern and Central time zones on Nexstar..."
  • Haley enters the debate on a surge of momentum and again the debate is likely to focus on foreign policy, considered a strength for Haley. She has recently picked up a major endorsement from the Koch brothers’ political network and displaced DeSantis as the most credible challenger to Trump in early voting states.
  • Data from Smarkets shows that Trump remains the overwhelming favourite to take the nomination however second place in the race carries more weight during this cycle due to the tail risk of Trump's legal issues precluding him from running.
  • Nate Cohn at the New York Times writes: "The idea that Ms. Haley might win New Hampshire might seem far-fetched but, historically, much crazier things have happened. Late surges in Iowa and New Hampshire are so common that they’re closer to being the norm than the exception."
Figure 1: 2024 Republican Presidential NomineeSource: Smarkets

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