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Free AccessFrancesco Papadia writing in the Bruegel...>
ECB VIEW: Francesco Papadia writing in the Bruegel blog highlights how the ECB
has changed its view of inflation, at least according to an analysis of Draghi
and Constancio speeches. Papadia highlights the ECB has shifted from "a
small-country model in which the pass-through of exchange-rate movements to
inflation is the dominant force, to a large-country model in which conditions in
the labour market, as conceptualised by the Phillips curve, have more
importance".
- Papadia posits possible reasons why it took so long to make this shift 1)
Intellectual inertia 2) Duisenburg came from a 'small country' but the change
began under Trichet. 3) The euro was an unprecedented experiment.
- The shift of ECB emphasis upon the FX rate is also backed up by studies
showing how the pass through from the FX rate to inflation has wilted over time
and Papadia picks up on a speech by Coeure with a Hahn model to back this up.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.