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POWER: French Jan May Trade Green but Upward Revision of Temps Could Weigh

POWER
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France's January power could trade in green – once it becomes liquid –  to track similar movements of neighbouring Germany amid increases in TTF and emissions. However, temperatures in Paris have been revised up on the day over 28 December- 1 January, which may limit gains. Wind in France is also expected to be higher on the week – which may weigh down spot prices.

  • France Base Power JAN 25 was unchanged at 99.91 EUR/MWh on 24 December
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 3.1% at 118.36 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.4% at 70.45 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 up 2.3% at 46.775 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 84% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s new 1.6GW Flamanville 3 reactor is still undergoing testing before fully powering up.
  • The 1.3GW Cattenom 4 is still anticipated to return to the grid on 31 December, with the 910MW Blayais 3 back online on 27 December.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised up on the day by as much as 1.5C over 28 December to 1 January. Temperatures are expected to remain below the norm until 29 December before flipping above the next day and remaining relatively inline until 4 January.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to 0.7C on Saturday from 2.18C from Friday and below the seasonal average.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 60.35GW on Saturday from 61.08GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to fall to 0.823GW on Saturday from 1.09GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up next week to be between 8-65% load factors over 30 December-3 January.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised down to end at -653GWh on 10 January, compared with -618GWh forecasted previously.
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France's January power could trade in green – once it becomes liquid –  to track similar movements of neighbouring Germany amid increases in TTF and emissions. However, temperatures in Paris have been revised up on the day over 28 December- 1 January, which may limit gains. Wind in France is also expected to be higher on the week – which may weigh down spot prices.

  • France Base Power JAN 25 was unchanged at 99.91 EUR/MWh on 24 December
  • Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 3.1% at 118.36 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1.4% at 70.45 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 up 2.3% at 46.775 EUR/MWh
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 84% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF’s new 1.6GW Flamanville 3 reactor is still undergoing testing before fully powering up.
  • The 1.3GW Cattenom 4 is still anticipated to return to the grid on 31 December, with the 910MW Blayais 3 back online on 27 December.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised up on the day by as much as 1.5C over 28 December to 1 January. Temperatures are expected to remain below the norm until 29 December before flipping above the next day and remaining relatively inline until 4 January.
  • Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to drop to 0.7C on Saturday from 2.18C from Friday and below the seasonal average.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 60.35GW on Saturday from 61.08GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind output in France is forecast to fall to 0.823GW on Saturday from 1.09GW forecasted for Friday according to SpotRenewables. But will pick up next week to be between 8-65% load factors over 30 December-3 January.
  • France’s hydro balance has been revised down to end at -653GWh on 10 January, compared with -618GWh forecasted previously.