Fresh Cycle Highs

Another day, another fresh high for AUD/USD, the pair rose as high as 0.7973 late in the US session, it has since dropped back slightly but is holding most of Wednesday's advance, last down 7 pips at 0.7961. A weaker greenback and elevated commodity prices continue to support AUD.

• From a technical perspective AUD/USD maintains a bullish posture and once again traded higher still early Wednesday. Price action on Feb 5 highlighted a reversal signal following the inability to clear the 50-day EMA. The pair has breached resistance at 0.7820, Jan 6 high as well as 0.7915, hitting the bull trigger in the process. The rate took out vol band resistance at 0.7955. The next hurdle is 0.7979, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the broad 2014-2020 decline above which 0.7988, the Feb 2018 high, comes into play. On the downside, a break of 0.7564, Feb 2 low is required to highlight a broader reversal. Initial support lies at 0.7718, the 20-day EMA.
• Private CapEx headlines the local economic slate on Thursday due at 0030GMT/1130AEDT, the figure is expected to have risen 1.0% in Q4 compared to a 3.0% decline in Q3. CBA says: "We expect the fifth estimate of 2020/21 capex plans to be $A121bn. These plans would be an upgrade to plans from the fourth estimate because of an increase by non‑mining industries."