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Friday saw Goldman Sachs note that......>

MARKET TALK
MARKET TALK: Friday saw Goldman Sachs note that "the significant
underperformance of the front-end of the US inflation curve and relative
steepening versus the EUR HICP curve reflects the stronger growth sensitivity of
US inflation (both underlying and traded). However, a more persistent inflation
process in the Euro area means that while the up-front hit from the growth shock
is less, a bearish inflation outlook is likely to weigh somewhat more heavily on
the inflation forwards. Ultimately, this should mean that an eventual growth
recovery is reflected in a sharper rebound in CPI swaps, while the soft outlook
for Euro area inflation should act as a greater restraint on HICP swaps out the
forward curve. Although there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook for
the recovery, the relative growth and inflation dynamics combined with the more
aggressive fiscal and monetary accommodation in the US lead us to recommend
going long 5y CPI swaps versus 5y HICP swaps, where the spread is the tightest
it has been since early 2012."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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