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Front Yields Pull Back After Step Nearer 2007 Peak With Solid Docket Ahead

US TSYS
[edited original typo of 4.128 for '07 peak, should be 5.128%]
  • Cash Tsys sit cheaper on yesterday’s close but it masks intraday moves after front yields touched fresh cycle highs of 5.080% in Asia hours in a continuation of moves after Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike at the March meeting. They have subsequently rallied to 5.038%, with some pull from richer EGBs, but the move has more closely set sights on the ’07 peak of 5.128%.
  • Ahead, labour data of note ahead of Friday’s payrolls, plus a second appearance from Powell and 10Y supply.
  • 2YY +3bp at 5.038%, 5YY +1.8bp at 4.329%, 10YY +0.6bp at 3.970% and 30YY +0.4bp at 3.876%
  • TYM3 trades just 1 tick lower at 110-29+ off overnight lows of 110-20+ came closer to the bear trigger of 110-12+ (Mar 2 low), with volumes modestly above average despite easing after an active Asia session.
  • Fedspeak likely to have less impact today but still notable. Barkin (’24) at 0800ET, Powell gives round two at the House at 1000ET and the Fed Beige Book at 1400ET.
  • Data: ADP (0815ET) and JOLTS (1000ET, plus annual revision) and international trade (0830ET) plus weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $32B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CGM7) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $36B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET

US 2y Tsy yieldSource: Bloomberg

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