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(M2) Correction Extends


Late Session Rebound


(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play


(M2) Gains Still Considered Corrective

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US TSYS: FTN Financial's Jim Vogel said "today marks three weeks of a bear trend
for US Treasuries. The 18bp move from Sept. 12 for 10s has been steep enough the
chart indicates consolidation is warranted after payrolls on Friday. The
question is where does a sideways move start to form. Monday afternoon's move
was in real yields, the component that is best positioned to push rates another
5-7bp higher if data continue to be friendly, .or if econ data are open to a
friendly interpretation. The market most likely to slow the yield advance is the
dollar, which has almost no speculative support yet has moved from its summer
lows and enjoys good economic fundamentals."
- He adds that "this year's biggest foe of bearish bond trends is continued
appetite for corporates and emerging market bonds. They still entertain robust
institutional support as witnessed by their absolute and relative performance
last month. Also, inflows to high grade fixed income mutual funds have been
unabated this fall." 

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