FTN Financial's Jim Vogel said "today.......>

US TSYS: FTN Financial's Jim Vogel said "today marks three weeks of a bear trend

for US Treasuries. The 18bp move from Sept. 12 for 10s has been steep enough the

chart indicates consolidation is warranted after payrolls on Friday. The

question is where does a sideways move start to form. Monday afternoon's move

was in real yields, the component that is best positioned to push rates another

5-7bp higher if data continue to be friendly, .or if econ data are open to a

friendly interpretation. The market most likely to slow the yield advance is the

dollar, which has almost no speculative support yet has moved from its summer

lows and enjoys good economic fundamentals."

- He adds that "this year's biggest foe of bearish bond trends is continued

appetite for corporates and emerging market bonds. They still entertain robust

institutional support as witnessed by their absolute and relative performance

last month. Also, inflows to high grade fixed income mutual funds have been

unabated this fall."