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Fund Flows & Supply Expectations (bbg)

CREDIT MACRO
  • Data for the week ending Wednesday point to firm flows into all $/€/£ IG & HY. €HY flows were more subdued then the rest.
  • Outside credit, govvie inflows were skewed to USTs while equity inflows continued at pace across both DM and EM.
  • More timely ETF data still point to strength; $HY's 2nd largest ETF - HYG - and Vanguard's short end IG (~3y) and long-end (~23y) funds are reporting >$500m inflows over the rolling week. €IG's IEAC - which is normally mute - is also tallying up €1b in inflows over the week.
  • It was somewhat reflected in primary with €IG's pick-up in pace after a mute month still being met with 2.8x avg. cover and NIC's in LSD. $IG's metrics were not particularly firm but they are wrapping up a busier than expected month (MTD $105.5b vs. c$95b) and issuing into spreads that are -16bps from earlier in the month wides.
  • Supply expectations will be impacted by Public Holidays next week; UK is off on Monday (with Gilts closed) while US has a long-weekend coming up (Labour day the following Monday).
  • €/£IG/HY (incl. covered) still expected to be a firm ~€23b vs. the ~€11b expected this week (actual €18b) as Europe leaves their summer behind, while $IG is expected to remain mute till the Labour day holiday passes. It came in at $23b this week vs. expectations for $20b.
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