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Further Deterioration In Homebuilder Sentiment Points To Weaker Economy

US DATA

Today's December NAHB reading of 31 (vs an uptick to 34 expected, from 33 prior) was a fresh decade low outside of the brief pandemic-related collapse in 2020.

  • We continue to flag that homebuilder sentiment tends to lead a variety of indicators well in advance. That includes building permits, construction, and the unemployment rate (see chart).
  • The current sentiment level is more consistent with an unemployment rate jump to 6-7% than with the current prevailing levels below 4%.
  • Tuesday brings Building Permits and Housing Starts data for November. Each look set to record a further M/M % decline.



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