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Further Fed Funds Rate Increases Post-Payrolls

STIR FUTURES
  • After a pause from the post-payrolls surge, rates implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds have drifted higher again.
  • Currently pricing a 69bp hike for Sept whilst the terminal rate briefly touched a new session high of 3.68% for Mar’23, moving closer to the cycle high of 3.72% seen for the Dec’22 meeting after US CPI in mid-July as the curve becomes less front-loaded.
  • It continues a huge repricing of hikes since last week’s FOMC, with at least an additional 25bp hike priced since after Powell’s press conference through Dec’22-Sep’23 meetings – see chart below (historical values from close on that day).

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  • After a pause from the post-payrolls surge, rates implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds have drifted higher again.
  • Currently pricing a 69bp hike for Sept whilst the terminal rate briefly touched a new session high of 3.68% for Mar’23, moving closer to the cycle high of 3.72% seen for the Dec’22 meeting after US CPI in mid-July as the curve becomes less front-loaded.
  • It continues a huge repricing of hikes since last week’s FOMC, with at least an additional 25bp hike priced since after Powell’s press conference through Dec’22-Sep’23 meetings – see chart below (historical values from close on that day).