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Futures At Multi Week Highs, As Ueda States Domestic Wage-Inflation Cycle Still Weak

JGBS

JGB futures remain on the front foot in afternoon trade. We were last near 144.64, +.30. Session highs rest at 144.67. These levels were last seen back on Oct 25. This has outperformed a slight offered tone in US futures, last (108-00, -03).

  • Much of the macro focus today has been on BoJ Governor Ueda's appearance before parliament. Whilst the Governor stated the central bank didn't necessarily have to wait until real wages growth was positive (before exiting YCC and negative rates), the overall tone was still dovish.
  • Critically, Ueda stated that the domestic wage-inflation remains weak and that the central bank remains some distance from hitting its 2% inflation target.
  • In the cash JGB space, yields are lower across the curve. The 10yr slipping under 0.86% (-3bps). Yield losses have been larger across the 20-40yr tenors, down 4-5bps.
  • For swaps, the 10yr is back close to 1.03%, albeit with more moderate yield losses compared to the JGB cash space.
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