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FX Reserves Only Dip Modestly, USD/CNH Holding Close to 7.1000

CNH

China's FX reserves fell by less than expected in September. The headline dipped to $3029bn, from $3054.9bn in August. The consensus looked for a print sub $3000bn. FX reserves are still at their lowest since early 2017.

  • The valuation adjustment alone, given the USD rally in September, should have seen a larger headline drop. The fact that we didn't suggests underlying BoP resilience. Such resilience is likely coming from the trade side though rather than the capital account.
  • USD/CNH hasn't reacted a great deal to the outcome. The pair sits close to 7.1000 currently, down slightly from earlier highs, although CNH is underperforming a slightly softer USD tone against the majors. Highs from Tuesday came in around 7.1170.
  • Rising covid case numbers onshore are likely to be weighing on sentiment at the margin.
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