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G10 Ranges Contained As Key Event Risk Approaches

FOREX
  • Moderate greenback weakness reversed following an above estimate reading for US JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday. However intra-day currency ranges remain narrow and the USD index remains little changed on the week as we approach tomorrow's FOMC decision/press conference.
  • The greenback bounce was once again best reflected by the rally for USDJPY, which rose to a session high of 147.93 after printing as low as 147.10 overnight. However, the USD index failed to escape out of its 30 pip range, with G10 currency adjustments on the day kept to minimal sizes.
  • The Australian dollar has moderately weakened on Tuesday, giving back some of the prior day’s advance ahead of both the key domestic inflation data and the FOMC meeting. EURAUD stands around 0.20% higher, giving up a portion of the move lower at the start of the week. Q4 CPI figures will be a crucial input into deliberations at next week's RBA meeting.
  • In emerging markets, the Hungarian Forint outperformed following a below consensus rate cut of just 75bps from the NBH, who cited deteriorating risk sentiment as the primary reason behind the smaller than expected move. USDHUF is 0.90% lower on the session.
  • As mentioned, Australia CPI kicks off Wednesday’s calendar before China PMI data is released. Eurozone inflation data is scheduled across the European morning. US ADP and ECI will cross alongside Canadian GDP before the MNI Chicago PMI rounds off the data docket. Focus then swiftly turns to the Jan FOMC decision. While no change is expected on rates, there is a good chance that the forward guidance will be amended to remove the tightening bias in favour of a more neutral stance, in light of recent disinflationary progress.
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