Gas Summary at European Close Summary: TTF in Reverse

European TTF front month has reversed earlier gains back towards flat on the day as the market assesses the risk of lower supply due to the conflict in Israel against low demand and high storage levels.

• TTF NOV 23 down -0.9% at 50.06€/MWh
• The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe in the coming week but drifting back towards normal in the second week of the outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 311.7mcm/d after dipping slightly over the weekend. Outages are expected to total around 14mcm/d in the coming few days according to Gassco data.
• End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.87% full on 28 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
• Equinor and RWE have signed a new supply contract the for delivery of 10-15TWh, or 1-1.5bcm, of natural gas per year from now until 2028, according to Equinor.
• Workers at Chevron’s two LNG facilities in Australia have endorsed the new del on pay and conditions according to the Offshore Alliance.
• Total European LNG sendout was at 328mcm/d on 28 Oct having averaged around 350mcm/d in the previous week.
• Global LNG capacity is set to expand by 250bcm/y by 2030 according to IEA after the limited supply growth between 2021 and 2024. Qatar and North America are forecast to account for over 80% of the capacity additions.
• Egyptian natural gas imports have halted on Sunday, the cabinet said, cited by Bloomberg, from 800mcf/d previously, leading to power cuts in the country.
• LNG deliveries to Europe and Turkey fell 5% last week to around 3bcm according to Kpler data. Supply could reach its highest in over five months with nearly 3.3bcm expected this week according to Montel.
• Energean’s 6.5bcm/yr Karish field in Israel resumed output on Friday after a short outage on Thursday night, a company spokesperson said, cited by Bloomberg.
• China’s Foran Energy Group is set to sign a 20-year SPA to buy 0.86m metric tons per annum of LNG from US supplier Cheniere according to Bloomberg.