Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Extends Decline

TTF front month extends the decline driven by low demand from the lack of cold temperatures in the weather forecast and high storage levels over 95% while extended Norwegian outages are limiting the downside moves. However, TTF is up around 2.1 Eur/MWh on the previous week.

• TTF NOV 23 down -2.3% at 42.1€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.1% at 45.54€/MWh
• JKM Oct 23 down -1.6% at 13.88$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Oct 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 1.93$/mmbtu
• Norwegian natural outages are further to scheduled to rise early next week before easing back in the second half of next with, with Norwegian annual maintenance coming to an end.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.15% full on 27 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 86.96%.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks with little sign of any cold until mid October.
• Gazprom’s Russian units produced 179.45bcm of natural gas in the first half of this year, down nearly 25% compared to the first half of 2022 according to company disclosure documents.
• LNG sendout to Europe is up to 302mcm/d on 27 Sep from as low as 236mcm/d on 23 Sep but still well below levels around 370mcm/d seen this time last year.
• Europe's LNG imports dropped by 20% yoy in Sep23, leading to their steepest drop since Russia's invasion of Ukraine according to IEA.
• Asian LNG buyers are now favoring oil indexation in their long-term contracting needs to move away from additional US LNG commitments according to Energy Intelligence.
• Japan's LNG stocks are expected to rise between October and November amid stock replenishments and falling weather temperatures, according to Platts.
• Japan is facing logistical difficulties for LNG deliveries due to US sanctions on the use of Russian transshipment terminals according to Daisuke Harada at JOGMEC.
• Cargoes offshore Europe that are remaining at sea is an indication of growing length in the Atlantic’s LNG market, according to ICIS.